Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Current Odds.

Bob Rae: 3 : 1
Stephane Dion: 3 : 1
Michael Ignatieff: 4 : 1
Ken Dryden: 6 : 1


Current Odds reflect the following :
1. Bevilacqua (and surely some of his right leaning delegates along with him) moves over to the Rae camp improving his already strong odds. More strength as a result of his performance during the Next Face interview. (Look for Part Three coming soon.) This is a veteran politician. A well spoken and intelligent alternative who in spite of his provincial skeletons could go toe to toe with Harper - both noses bloodied - and come out on top.
2. Ignoring the plagiarism debacle for a moment, Stephane Dion's strength is his seasoned political presence and youthful enthusiasm. We also like his 3 pillars message. If he has a weakness it might be the overzealous bloggers that will say or do anything to get his message out.
3. We like Ken Dryden a great deal. Frankly we think when the dust settles and the possible campaigns to prevent an Ignatieff or a Rae election rise to the surface, it could come down to Dryden and Dion. But his vision for "A Big Canada" may be too big for some to digest. Did it hit the mark? Time will tell, but our feeling is that momentum is waning in this camp. He needs to make a significant announcement in October or November and go into the convention with a head of steam.
4. Big re-launch today. Still, he seems more prone to polarize (rather than unify) the delegate population. At least that is the sense in the blog community. A Next Face interview cannot be far off and that might make all the difference. At least to us anyway.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Your odds seem to be in-line and reflect what this blog speaks of and to. A change I would make if I can add my betting nickel would be to move one of the favourites to 5/2:1. I leave it up to you to determine who that should be.

rms said...

what are you smoking?!!

Have you heard Dryden speak?

Nice, nice man. Should be the official mascot of the Liberal party. But that strong a shot at leader?

tobias said...

rms
don't discount the power of the "anyone but" campaigns...they are as much a part of this as anything and they need to factored into the odds.

There are more delegates who would want "anyone but Rae" or "anyone but Ignatieff" and that could work in Dryden's or Dion's favour.

Anonymous said...

I'm finding the "odds" thing amongst bloggers useless - they all put their particular favourite in favour.

CuriosityCat said...

I don't quibble with your odds, right now. Your point about Ignatieff being a divisive politician is particularly telling, and very important. No matter what delegates might say at this time, when they come to cast their votes they will also be thinking of the second and third set of votes which are important: those of Liberals (other than them), and of non-Liberals, in the coming election.

Ignatieff, if elected, would in my view polarize the Liberal Party, lose Liberal votes, put off Dippers contemplating voting Liberal, and have no offsetting rightwing votes (which will still go the Harper's new Tories).

The above statement cannot be made about Dion or Rae.

Food for thought for all those delegates.... Is the candidate you are going to vote for electable?