Has it become Dion's race to loose? Is all but wrapped up? Only a brilliant Rae tactical move or an Ignatieff miracle could undermine what some are calling the inevitable.
Many scenarios and many pundits floating theories these days but few are speaking to an intangible that may be the most compelling to date : Liberal DNA.
Dion represents the only one of the three with deeper roots in the party. While those roots are only 10 years deep, he is family, and delegates not sure who to swing to after Ballot 1, 2 or 3 will more often than not tend to
go for family feeling that:
a. He deserves it.
b. He is the easier choice.
c. He is less controversial.
d. He is...well...family after all, and
e. He has been a good soldier.
One should not underestimate the power of the Liberal family. The tendency to reward the good soldier. We heard that term several times over the campaign from Dion and twice in our interview with him. There is a reason to drive that point home: it speaks to the Liberal DNA factor.
And while we are sure that this time will be different and that this time the Party will re-invent itself, Dion's election represents that re-invention but within a safer framework: a family model. This scenario is not unlike the Trudeau nomination or the Turner and Chretien nominations. Each different degrees of a new direction but each under the banner of Liberal DNA, sired from Lester Pearson's stable of soldiers.
Dion on the fourth ballot?
The Liberal Party could do much much worse.