Sunday, August 13, 2006

Current Odds.

Bob Rae: 4 : 1
Stephane Dion: 5 : 1
Ken Dryden: 5 : 1
Michael Ignatieff: 6 : 1


Current Odds reflect :
1. Some more positive movement in the Rae camp.
2. Excellent Toronto Star article on Stephane Dion today, painting him as the "underdog" not to be underestimated.
3. Dryden's terrific performance in conversation with Next Face.
4. Ignatieff's seemingly consistent ability to be the subject of controversial quotes and misfires.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Unless you include Kennedy, your odds are not very interesting.

Darren McEwen said...

Given the membership drive numbers and donations, I too am surprised Kennedy isn't on this upper list of odds.

AP said...

Sorry Anonymous and Darren, I think these numbers are bang on. Sure Kennedy may have recruited more people than expected but at the end of the day I don't think he'll win. I think it will come down between Ignatieff and Rae and the sleeper candidate right now is Dion. If Dryden were a bit more exciting and spoke a hell of a lot better French it may be a different story. Besides, with Dryden laying off staff at this stage of the race that can't be a good omen for him.

gritredordead said...

actually anon...the odds are interesting BECAUSE the "food bank guy" is not included...

AP said...

Exactly gritredordead. Next Face is bucking the trend of Kennedy adoration among some Liberal bloggers and giving us the real goods. Kennedy ain't gonna win folks.

s.b. said...

You need to check the high profile and ex-officio endorsements in the Hill Times last week. Rae's list is very small. His odds aren't that good. Plus how much second ballot support does he have? None.

Anonymous said...

SB. You can't discount the fact that Rae has been impressive in the amount of money donated to his campaign and if you look on his web site he is doing quite well in endorsements. Ignatieff has peaked in the amount of support he will receive. His conduct over the last months has left people cold. Most everybody who has seen, heard or spoken to Rae has walked away impressed and are giving him a second look. Dion is the one to watch. Unfortunately for Dryden his French is not good enough and the party won't elect a leader who speaks worse French than Harper. Rae is for real. Don't dismiss him just yet.

dm said...

Kennedy has concrete support, that is factual despite what any blogger wants to state.

An odds debate without Kennedy is just ignoring reality.

But hey, you can make up any scenario you want.

s.b. said...

I would have to say Kennedy has to be factored in and will probably beat Rae. I think Rae will come fifth. Sorry a few donaions of 5400 from very rich friends of your brothers doesn't mean you get to be leader. His support base in the PArty is very small. Smaller than Brison's. His list of supporters is about one third of Drydens. A hundred dollar donation from a Liberal member is worth as much in support as a 5400 from some rich guy your bnrother knows, maybe more. Rae doesn't even come close to having the support of Dryden. As far as him being an impressive speaker, sure. But he's a crap ass leader and everyone in Ontario knows it.

Anonymous said...

It simply does not make sense to have odds on Dryden but not Kennedy. I believe Kennedy has more grassroots support than most of your listed candidates.

gritredordead said...

sure it does

daveberta said...

I would agree. I think Kennedy is amoung the frontrunner pack.