Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Igantieff And The Second Ballot.

On the front page of the Globe and Mail this morning you will find a story by their Ottawa Bureau Chief, Brian Laghi; IGNATIEFF CLINGS TO SLIGHT LEAD, the headline reads. But the real story in this article is the second ballot support which appears to be strongest for Rae and Dion and less so for Ignatieff.

Even more compelling is the idea that as a third choice (or on the third ballot) it is Stephane Dion who leads both Rae and Ignatieff. That fits in well with Next Face's prognostication. When all is said and done, it is likely Dion (or Dryden) who will be the safe haven for delegates once the dust settles on the Ignatieff and Rae battle. That is to say, a safer, more centrist personality - less plagued by controversy - will likely see the ground swell support in the 3rd and 4th ballots.

At least that is how we have seen it and it appears that the Globe/CTV poll that Laghi references in his article might concur.

But wait, the news for Dryden gets even better. That is unless the Globe editors messed up on this one. The very last paragraph of the same story reads like this :

"...But overall the public gives Mr. Dryden - who also has the highest name recognition - the first ballot lead with 18 per cent, trailed by Mr. Rae at 14 per cent, Mr. Ignatieff at 7 per cent and Mr. Dion at 6 per cent."

15 comments:

VanEastGrit said...

The Strategic Counsel poll was about three weeks after the Hastings and Main poll which I posted in the comments section of the same Globe and Mail publication. Some of you bloggers may have seen the repost by someone else in Liberal blogland.

It is of no surprise that same G&M would bury such a significant fact at the end of the story with nary a bold quote.

Do we want to defeat Harper?

Then let Ken do what he has a chance to do better than any other Liberal candidate. Kick the pants off of Stephen Harper!

It is obvious that many of you have picked some incredibly talented candidates for very good reasons.
Let that same reasoning support Ken and do whats right for Canada and stop the narrow Harper agenda.

Respectfully,
East Van Grit

[JTF6.0]Undecided said...

I just want add a point to highlight a key area of the poll. In it the poll states that Dion supporters break towards Mr. Rae by a factor of 3 to 1 or (75%). This adds up to a grand total of 9.25% of Rae's second ballot support that will not appear until after Dion drops out. In other words, despite Rae's apparent lead, Dion could still be ahead on the fourth ballot. There, unfortunately, is no information of how Rae's second ballot support breaks down and thus I can make no hard conclusions. I'll need access to the complete results to make a full analysis.

tobias said...

JTF it is unlikely that Dion will drop out in this thing. He will be in the fight to the end. The swing will come from others, but not from Dion.

According to the poll, Rae's success would largely depend on the "break support" from Dion's delegates; support that may never come. Even if Kennedy moves to Rae (as the mole theory would suggest), it does not guarantee that the delegates move with him.

In fact, the more I think of it, I can see Rae making the big decision to slay Ignatieff by moving over to either Dion or Dryden and one day standing by the future Prime Minister of Canada as his Foreign Affairs Minister or Attorney General. All things considered it would not be a bad outcome for a former one term NDP Premier of Ontario.

Anonymous said...

In fact, the more I think of it, I can see Rae making the big decision to slay Ignatieff by moving over to either Dion or Dryden

Interesting scenario. I never thougt of that. If that occured He would earn back my respect after making donations to the NDP to help bring down the Liberals in the last election.

The old boys network he has supporting him may have to much on the line to allow him to pull a move like you propose.

Anonymous said...

Look Dryden ain't gonna win. He's an English speaking only candidates and the Liberal party would be unwise to select that type of leader. He is incomprehensible in French, its that simple people.

With apologies to all the candidates except Rae, Dion and Ignatieff, please drop out now so we can get on to the real contest. Your summer fling is over.

Anonymous said...

I will be watching who sides with Rae. Those that side with Rae will have lost credibility and respect. Those that side with Rae lied to us. The Liberal party was suppose to be running on renewal and clean-up.

Rae is slime of the highest degree. I my local Liberal candidate had sided with Rae in the next election - that candidate WILL NOT get my vote.

If Rae if the Liberal leader, the Liberals will NOT get my vote.

(I've been a Liberal all my life and became a member and donated in good faith)

If Rae is leader, the Liberals have lost my faith.

Anonymous said...

Based on these 6 comments alone, it is Dion's to loose.

Anonymous said...

Anonynous @ 10:54 -- If you've been a Liberal your whole life you will have a mighty hard time voting for Stephen Harper and his Reform party, no? I guess you will be okay with a electing a right wing ultra conservative party, no? You see your comment is really partisan spin, no? Just admit which campaign you are shilling for and be honest. For every supposed "disgruntled" life long Liberal like yourself -- there are three NDPers who will gladly vote for a Bob Rae led NDP.

Anonymous said...

Funny ... I should have written a "Bob Rae led Liberal Party." I'm sure that will get the dogs barking!

Herb said...

I can't believe it. I really can't believe it.

You guys will actually throw overboard a truly decent man, and an incredibly effective politician who actually stands a good chance of beating Harper, because you're worried about the fact that he donated a few hundred dollars to the campaigns of some of his former friends and colleagues.

I'm starting to have a better understanding of how the Tories ended up settling on Joe Clark in 1976.

Anonymous said...

Wow, Next face,

I really was sucked in at about your intentions to run unbiased commentary in your blog...

You and some of your commentors are really missing the point here. As much as everyone complained about the last two polls with strong showings for Bob Rae meaning nothing because they were done amongst the public, not liberals, now you have one done amongst liberal members and you point to the Globe "burying such a sgnificant fact" at the end of the story...

And making something of Dion's THIRD support as more significant that Bob Rae's second support is just plain unobjective...on first and second choice amongst liberal members, who will choose delegates, Bob Rae has 40%, MI, 29% and Stephane Dion, 30%...and you somehow twist this to Rae dropping out in favour of Dion? What planet are you people on?

Anonymous said...

I agree. Bob Rae has been the real story in all three polls. For a guy who was not going to be welcomed into the Liberal Party he sure is showing how incorrect that argunent was.

Anonymous said...

Yes I've been a Liberal all my life, but I cannot in principle vote for Rae if he is leader of the party. Harper is not the only other choice "remember" there is the NDP (not on your life) and the Green Party. I would either not vote at all or I would vote Green.

Anonymous said...

Sorry Anonymous at 1:07 but you're in the minority of the minorities territory. If -- and I mean a big if -- the Green party wins ONE seat in the next election that would be massive. But they won't. More NDPers will switch to the Liberals than what you plan on doing by voting Green (IF you actually do that). I know that doesn't sit well with you but its just a fact.

tobias said...

Hey Anon 11:55.
There is no sucking in here.
And we still think we are the best example of unbiasaed commentary, but that doesn't mean we can't have some fun. Lighten up and while your at it - reveal thyself so we can taunt you a second time.


Give us some credit at least we are consistent. We have advocated on behalf of the 4 candidates that we have always thought had a legitimate chance at this and it looks like we will be vindicated on that front. (Not that we are looking for vindication. In the end, we just want to be loved.)

The Dryden comment is what it is.
The paragraph in the Globe was confusing at best. Unless you caught the word 'public' it seemed like an editorial hatchet job to fit the piece in the alotted space.