Stephane Dion : 5 : 2
Bob Rae: 3 : 1
Ken Dryden: 5 : 1
Michael Ignatieff: 7 : 1
Current Odds reflect the following :
1. Dion's strong debate performance. But it was more about what he did not say...by not entering into this looming debate bewteen Rae and Ignatieff on the 'nationhood' of Quebec as Ignatieff defines it, Dion should remain clear of the fall out and become the clear front runner in this race heading into the fall. That is if he can keep certain exhuberant bloggers from hurting his credibility further...
2. Rae was our odds on favorite earlier this month but he cannot win a debate with Ignatieff on the Constitution. Not because he lacks the skill, but because from that debate there can be no winner. As Sheila put it, the only winner in that debate are the Conservatives.
3. Substantially lifted by the recent poll, Dryden is in the drivers seat. Those who hear him one on one come away with a profound respect and a sense that this is THE decent candidate that could take on Harper and win this thing. He could easily find himself ahead if he can go into the convention with potent lineup that includes say... the political equivalents to Guy Lafleur and Steve Shutt by his side. (Read...say, Martha Hall Findlay and Gerrard Kennedy)
4. We think that by opening the Constitutional debate, that Ignatieff has sealed his fate. We think we need to say no more that what Sheila has alread said, except to add that whoever came up with the idea to drop that bomb at the debate in Quebec may have been the same advisor who penned the now infamous Martin bomb in his last debate with Harper on the notwithstanding clause. Too bad. It could have been a good run...