Friday, September 15, 2006

Current Odds.

Stephane Dion : 5 : 2
Bob Rae: 3 : 1
Ken Dryden: 5 : 1
Michael Ignatieff: 7 : 1


Current Odds reflect the following :
1. Dion's strong debate performance. But it was more about what he did not say...by not entering into this looming debate bewteen Rae and Ignatieff on the 'nationhood' of Quebec as Ignatieff defines it, Dion should remain clear of the fall out and become the clear front runner in this race heading into the fall. That is if he can keep certain exhuberant bloggers from hurting his credibility further...

2. Rae was our odds on favorite earlier this month but he cannot win a debate with Ignatieff on the Constitution. Not because he lacks the skill, but because from that debate there can be no winner. As Sheila put it, the only winner in that debate are the Conservatives.

3. Substantially lifted by the recent poll, Dryden is in the drivers seat. Those who hear him one on one come away with a profound respect and a sense that this is THE decent candidate that could take on Harper and win this thing. He could easily find himself ahead if he can go into the convention with potent lineup that includes say... the political equivalents to Guy Lafleur and Steve Shutt by his side. (Read...say, Martha Hall Findlay and Gerrard Kennedy)

4. We think that by opening the Constitutional debate, that Ignatieff has sealed his fate. We think we need to say no more that what Sheila has alread said, except to add that whoever came up with the idea to drop that bomb at the debate in Quebec may have been the same advisor who penned the now infamous Martin bomb in his last debate with Harper on the notwithstanding clause. Too bad. It could have been a good run...

2 comments:

burlivespipe said...

I didn't see the debate but I would expect Dion to thrive -- and it sounds like he stickhandled reasonably well through the constitutional pilons. However, I don't think you've taken into consideration the latest hit to his campaign -- the leak (aren't those brave Conservatives? Avoid media at all cost until they have dirt on the opposition... but it works!) about the upcoming Auditor General's report on the Liberal gov't's efforts and cost efficiency on the environment could be a significant punch, as it comes the day before delegate selection. Add in the slap about the pilfered Suzuki report quotes and we've seen that Dion's camp isn't very schooled in damage control, certainly not in the same class as Ignatieff...
Your odds also came out before the Bennett news; while she, like Bevilacqua, won't deliver much in instant soldiers, it is a seriously good pickup piece -- Bennett brings cache in terms of honesty and integrity. Her grass roots appraoch certainly will have people give a third look at Rae...
Dryden continues to impress me, and if I wasn't already committed he'd be the one I'd be zeroing in on. The french debate, unfortunately, shows his achilles heel... And I'd have liked to hear a few more Hab teammates or retired NHLers come out in support of Ken -- do we know, besides the Big M, if any have endorsed KD? What about Red Kelly, ex-Lib MP during the Pearson era?
Ignatieff continues to dance in the minefield. Kudos for half-part bravery, but I just don't see any growth potential. But I guess it will depend upon how many 'Anybody but...' camps form and how those 2 primary targets score on opening ballot.
Keep up the good work!

Anonymous said...

Carolyn Bennett just lost some of that "intregrity".